Everyone is extremely concerned about the future development of the US e-cigarette market. Overall, most people are taking a wait - and - see attitude. This is not only the case in the e - cigarette industry but also in other industries. While waiting and watching, businesses are also preparing to explore other markets. It is believed that in the future, multi - market exploration will become a strategy for most e - cigarette enterprises to avoid over - reliance on a single market.
I. The Total Tax Rate on Chinese E - cigarettes Exported to the US Reaches 150%, and Terminal Retail Prices May Increase Tenfold
According to the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), e - cigarette devices and components are classified under the following tariff items:
HTS 8543.70.9930 (e - cigarette sticks, atomizers, batteries, etc.)
HTS 8543.70.9940 (pod - based e - cigarettes and disposable e - cigarettes)
These goods are all included in the scope of the Section 301 tariffs. Section 301 is a common name for Section 301 of the US Trade Act. Its core is to authorize the US government to investigate and impose unilateral sanctions, including imposing tariffs, on "unfair trade practices" of foreign countries. This clause was first seen in the Trade Act of 1974 and has been revised several times since then, becoming an important tool for US unilateral trade protection.
In 2018, the Trump administration launched a trade investigation against Chinese goods under Section 301 and then imposed a 25% tariff on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, with e - cigarette devices and components clearly included.
After taking office, the Biden administration continued the tariff policies of the Trump era and extended the 25% tariff on e - cigarettes. As of 2025, this tax rate still exists as a basic tariff.
In February 2025, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, and e - cigarettes were included. In March, an additional 10% tariff was imposed on the original basis. At this time, the tax rate for e - cigarettes exported to the US was: 25% (basic) + 10%+10% = 45%.
In April 2025, the Trump administration announced that it would raise the originally planned 34% tariff to 84%, and then to 105%. So far, the final tax rate for e - cigarettes exported to the US is calculated as: 45% (accumulated previously)+105% = 150%.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to February 2025, the export value of Chinese e - cigarette products (including e - cigarettes and similar personal vaping devices) was $1.5 billion. Among them, under the category of "e - cigarettes and similar personal electronic vaping devices", the average export unit price calculated by quantity was $3.93 per unit. Calculated at a unit price of $3.93 per unit, under a 150% tariff, the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) price of Chinese e - cigarettes exported to the US is $9.83. After further price increases in the wholesale and retail links, American e - cigarette consumers will eventually have to spend $33.92 to purchase the product. Therefore, if the 150% tariff is strictly implemented, American e - cigarette consumers will face a difficult situation, and a decline in sales is inevitable.
II. Most E - cigarette Industry Insiders Take a Wait - and - See Attitude Towards the Tariff War
There are two main reasons for this wait - and - see attitude:
First, the US government has repeatedly adjusted the tariff rates temporarily and granted a 90 - day tariff exemption to 75 countries. People hope that future negotiations will bring good news. In addition, there is uncertainty about whether the customs will strictly enforce the tariffs.
Second, there is a short - term inventory buffer effect. The e - cigarette inventory that could not be sold before has now become valuable. According to industry insiders, the US e - cigarette inventory has dropped significantly.
Despite taking a wait - and - see attitude, e - cigarette industry insiders are making full preparations for alternative strategies, such as building factories overseas and exploring markets other than the US.
Building Factories Overseas Recently, there has been a rumor that some enterprises plan to build factories in the US. However, most industry insiders believe that this measure is not very practical because the e - cigarette supply chain still needs to be transported from China. Only carrying out final assembly in the US is of little significance. Building factories in Southeast Asia, such as in Indonesia and Malaysia, has become a more feasible option. Since Trump first imposed a 25% tariff in 2018, many Chinese e - cigarette factories have established production lines in places like Batam Island and Jakarta in Indonesia. If necessary, they can expand their production capacity on this basis. According to incomplete statistics, e - cigarette enterprises that have built factories in Indonesia include Smoore, Firstunion, JINJIA GROUP, GEEKVAPE.
Non - US Markets In addition to the US, countries such as the UK, Germany, Russia, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Malaysia are also among the top markets for e - cigarette exports.
Market Overview of Some Countries:
UK: The ban on disposable e - cigarettes has led to a contraction of the market, prompting a shift towards compliant products. The UK has a zero - excise - tax policy for e - cigarettes, and menthol - flavored products are legal, supporting the demand for refillable products.
Germany: Considered a new growth pole in the European e - cigarette market. In March 2025, China's e - cigarette exports to Germany reached $75.46 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.94%, surpassing the UK for the first time to become the second - largest export destination.
Russia: Disposable e - cigarettes account for as high as 55% of the market. Chinese brands such as ELFBAR and HQD have a large market influence. Logistics is convenient, with the China - Russia special line taking only 15 days to arrive. Moscow and St. Petersburg have become core distribution hubs.
Netherlands: It is the largest e - cigarette logistics hub in Europe. In March 2025, the export value was $27.33 million, and 60% of the products were transshipped through the Port of Rotterdam to Germany and France.
Conclusion
The US e - cigarette market is at a crossroads. With a 150% tariff wall, price increases and a decline in sales are inevitable. However, the resilience of the industry remains strong. From building factories in Southeast Asia to compliant layouts in Europe, from technological upgrades to supply chain reconstruction, Chinese e - cigarette enterprises are making strategic moves on the global stage. This tariff war may reshape the market pattern, but it cannot stifle innovation and adaptability.
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